Yes! Similar to Denise I forecast a load of personal life things. Most of the value has come from handling anxiety. I think it's often more about the process than the actual number though. Being very explicit about creating coherent narratives around my fears allows me to do some combo of accepting of the bad outcome and challenging of the bad narrative.
The connection between EA and forecasting is that if you're doing "long-termism" you have to be able to predict the future.
I'm sceptical anyone can actually do this to any reasonable degree. With short-termism you can make use of feedback loops - try something, if it works, continue doing it, if it doesn't, change track.
With long-termism you can head down the wrong road for your entire lifespan - many people's lifespans - and never know it until it's too late. If forecasting accurately is possible in the short-term, it opens up at least the possibility of doing it long-term.
Sadly psychophistory is not real and I think it's probably fundamentally impossible to make projections that far into the future.
Yes! Similar to Denise I forecast a load of personal life things. Most of the value has come from handling anxiety. I think it's often more about the process than the actual number though. Being very explicit about creating coherent narratives around my fears allows me to do some combo of accepting of the bad outcome and challenging of the bad narrative.
(I wrote about this here:
https://seekingtobejolly.substack.com/p/i-am-using-forecasting-to-worry-and)
The connection between EA and forecasting is that if you're doing "long-termism" you have to be able to predict the future.
I'm sceptical anyone can actually do this to any reasonable degree. With short-termism you can make use of feedback loops - try something, if it works, continue doing it, if it doesn't, change track.
With long-termism you can head down the wrong road for your entire lifespan - many people's lifespans - and never know it until it's too late. If forecasting accurately is possible in the short-term, it opens up at least the possibility of doing it long-term.
Sadly psychophistory is not real and I think it's probably fundamentally impossible to make projections that far into the future.